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martes, 6 de mayo de 2014

Kerry and the Illusion of a Monroe Doctrine


In 2013, Secretary of State Kerry stated "…the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over", burying a near-200 years policy of US hegemony in the region. This could look as a gesture of liberal politics by the Obama administration and a historical justice to the region, but the real fact is that Latin American has changed and Monroe Doctrine is just a paper on the wall with an old reminiscence for a superpower that is not anymore what used to be.
Let's face it, Latin America nor U.S. are the same that 40 years ago, when the U.S. had a wide abidance within the region through several dictatorships with a doubtful respect to human rights, and the only governments crazy enough to object U.S. designs were Castro in Cuba and Torrijos in Panama.
Latin America has been walking since ten or five years ago by itself, disregarding sometimes or even defying other times the voice of the United States. Several examples can be delivered. In 2002 in Argentina a proposal of free trade area for the entire region backed by North America was rejected, which caused the early leaving of George W. Bush of the 4th Summit of the Americas, and forcing the United States to sign bilateral agreements on free trade with some governments which wanted. Even there is consensus among Latin American governments about not celebrating a 7th without representatives of Cuba. The celebration of CELAC Summit with the presence of all presidents except Panama (due a bilateral issue) in Havana last January it's been a step that many observers inside and outside the region have seen as defiant.
The predominant economic power that still having the United States in the region has weak especially since the world crisis of 2008 and the rise of emerging economies such as China, Russia, India, and Brazil. In this sense, China has become "the largest importer of goods from Brazil and Chile, and the second largest in the case of Costa Rica, Cuba and Peru. It is also the third-largest source of goods imports for Latin America and the Caribbean, accounting for 13% of the region's imports. At the same time, the Latin American and Caribbean region has become a major destination for Chinese FDI."
The preponderance of Brazil as economic partner inside Latin America has grown without precedents. Several Brazilian companies like Odebrecht, Petrobras and Banco do Brasil are investing as never before not just inside Brazilian economy, but also in other countries of Latin America, mainly Argentina, Venezuela and Cuba. In Cuba, Odebrecht is building one of the top projects in decades for the Cuban government, the mega-port of Mariel, that some scholars says could compete with Port of Miami after the conclusion of the works at Panama Canal. That Port of Mariel is a huge bet for both former President Lula and current President Rousseff as shows their multiple visits to the construction pier.
The deep interest of those economies, mainly China and Russia, in the pursue of new markets giving billionaires credits have left with in dead letter the spirit of President Monroe when stated in 1823 during his seventh annual State of the Union speech that: "The occasion has been judged proper for asserting, as a principle in which the rights and interests of the United States are involved, that the American continents, by the free and independent condition which they have assumed and maintain, are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for future colonization by any European powers."
Interpreted in the sense that no European power should tie relations to any now independent government and maintain aware of Latin America, subsequently, an American sphere of influence, that policy ruled the relations between US and Latin America for near 200 years, but even when Obama administration has practically been obliged by current situation to declare the end of Monroe Doctrine as a gesture to ease tensions with several Latin American countries and to get a new approach with a region that each day is more defiant to the American hegemony with a partnership rhetoric, still existing a wide numbers of neo conservators politicians and lawmakers that disagree.
After the scandal of US espionage through NSA intercepting emails, text messages and phone calls from President Dilma Rousseff, top aides and state-run oil company, Petrobras; President Rousseff decided to postpone (what looks as a cancelation) a state visit scheduled for October 2013, despite the several calls of President Obama to not postpone the visit, and she demanded an explanation by US officials about the spying. This has been an unprecedented action taken by a Latin American President to Washington and could show the determination is prevailing these days.
In some sectors of American policy, this action was seen as a snub and Senator Rubio, a son of Cubans and a potential presidential contender in 2016, see as "exaggerated" the concerns expressed by European and Latin American governments over the revelations of spying on their citizens and authorities. In a speech in 2012 clearly referred to Brazil as the power to be counterbalanced in The Americas.
Even Secretary Kerry himself called Latin America as a US backyard on April 2013, months before his statement at OAS, which raised a protest of several presidents and the public opinion around the "backyard". This change of speech by US Secretary of State is not a minor issue, and is on the back of the real expectations Latin American governments should wait from US foreign policy. This call in OAS as neighbors and equals, is a smart try to speak what Latin America wants to hear, but in the real sense, still counting the appellative of backyard used in front of the US lawmakers.
So we have in one side, a region that is starting to walk by itself, looking for new horizons and welcoming new partnerships with emerging economies, and on the other side is the United States, an old actor in the sub-continent, that publicly have changed it´s level in the relation from Big Brother to partner, looking for a new kind of interchange and willing to hold the hands that once hit, but in a domestic level of analysis remains the reminiscences of: "Oh, we were the Masters". But to be honest, what most matters is not the level that United States has adopted in the relation, but the level Latin America has decided to adopt.

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